Everytime you do the disguise kit taunt there is a one in six chance you will not throw a cigarette but instead do a spycrab taunt.

First to three spycrabs LOSES.

Personally, I think it's a terrible way to gamble. RNG is impossible for a computer to do, instead it takes a milisecond off the clock. Trends rule heavily, as you will see, against all arguements of that being a gambler's fallacy.

Furthermore, gambling is a dangerous addiction and hitting rock bottom can cost you more than your items. Reputable traders have been known to turn to scamming to feed that addiction, but in the end, gamblers play until they lose everything.

Personally, I couldn't imagine setting up for a crab. Obviously, you need a middleman, since there are many Steamrep threads about people not paying on a spycrab. But how do you bet your hat against another of equal value? Why not just trade?